2020 Election Forecast
We rated every race in play in 2020. This is who we think will?win.
Updated 4/19/2020 9:00 AM EDT
What American politics will look like after 2020 is anyone’s guess. But we’re taking our best shot.
The latest from POLITICO’s 2020 Election Forecast: Ratings from Senior Elections Editor Steven Shepard for every national contest, from the 538 Electoral College votes to the 435 House districts — and everything in between.
We’ll be updating our ratings all the way through Election Day. Some key points from our most up-to-date predictions:
In the race for the White House, President Donald Trump can lose up to 36 electoral votes and still win. But his low approval ratings, including for his handling of the coronavirus pandemic, make this race a toss-up.
In the Senate, Republicans are still favored to retain the majority, though Democrats’ potential path has become better defined over the past few months.
In the House, strong fundraising and GOP recruiting holes make Democrats likely to hold their majority.
The ratings are the product of a rigorous process, analyzing election results, registration trends, the national political environment, public polling and private survey data. They also reflect conversations with dozens of campaign operatives, pollsters and other sources.
They’re presented on a 7-point scale: Races that are “solid” for each party are essentially locked in. Those favoring one party are rated as “likely” or “lean,” depending on the strength of the party’s advantage. Contests in which one party does not hold a marked edge are rated as “toss-ups.”
Key presidential races
Key Senate races
Key House races
Key governors races
Forecasts for your state
- Ratings and analysis by Steven Shepard.
- Project management by Allan James Vestal.
- Design and development by Allan James Vestal and Beatrice Jin.
- Additional development by Andrew Briz.
- Editing by Scott Bland, Lily Mihalik, Charlie Mahtesian, Andrew McGill and Mike Zapler.
- Copy editing by Andy Goodwin, Sushant Sagar and Robin Turner.
Previous statewide and congressional district election results data from the MIT Election Lab. Congressional district presidential results from Daily Kos. Additional data from U.S. Census Bureau and POLITICO reporting.
See something wrong with our data? Email [email protected].